South Sudan’s Fragile Peace Teeters on the Brink of Collapse

South Sudan, the world’s youngest nation, is spiraling toward chaos as a 2018 peace deal that halted a brutal civil war unravels. The arrest of Vice President Riek Machar, a key figure in the power-sharing government, has ignited tensions, raising the specter of renewed conflict in a country already battered by poverty, ethnic divisions, and weak governance.

Formed in 2011 after decades of struggle to break from Sudan, South Sudan has been unable to stabilize. Civil wars in 2013 and 2016, driven by ethnic rivalries between President Salva Kiir’s Dinka majority and Machar’s Nuer minority, killed an estimated 400,000 people. The 2018 ceasefire, fragile from the start, created a coalition government with Kiir as president and Machar as one of five vice presidents. Yet, the absence of national elections and persistent ethnic mistrust have kept the nation on edge.

The Current Crisis

Machar’s arrest this week, following the dismissal and detention of other SPLM/A-IO party officials, has pushed the peace agreement to the breaking point. The SPLM/A-IO, Machar’s party, declared the deal “effectively collapsed,” warning of dire consequences for stability. The arrests coincided with Kiir’s controversial decision to invite Ugandan troops to combat a Nuer-aligned militia, the White Army, in Nasir, where clashes this month killed dozens, including a senior South Sudanese general. Machar condemned Uganda’s intervention as a violation of the peace terms in a letter to the UN.

The government accuses Machar of inciting rebellion to derail elections and destabilize the country, citing unspecified “intelligence reports.” Information Minister Michael Makuei claimed Machar’s actions promote “hate and tribalism,” though no evidence has been publicly presented. The White Army denies any formal ties to Machar, complicating the narrative of his alleged involvement.

International Response

The UN has sounded the alarm, with Secretary-General Antonio Guterres warning that South Sudan is “one step closer to the edge of a collapse into civil war.” Western embassies, including those of the US, UK, and EU, have called for Machar’s release and a ceasefire, while urging citizens to evacuate. The African Union plans to send a delegation to Juba, and Kenya’s envoy, Raila Odinga, expressed cautious optimism after meeting Kiir, though no concrete resolution emerged.

A Nation in Crisis

South Sudan’s challenges extend beyond politics. The World Bank reports that over two-thirds of its population lives on less than $2.15 a day, despite the country’s oil wealth. Violence, mismanagement, and corruption have exacerbated humanitarian needs, with more than 500,000 refugees from neighboring conflicts straining resources. The UN describes South Sudan as facing “multiple crises at once,” a nation teetering on the brink yet largely ignored globally.